Editorial Articles

While doing a recent research piece about the future of mobile, I had the pleasure of meeting and interviewing interesting people from many of the handset manufacturers, such as Nokia and Samsung, and mobile operating system makers, such as Microsoft and Google.

While discussing their plans for the future (in so far as is possible in the cloak-and-dagger world of mobile) one thing became clear – no one gives two hoots about anything other than smartphones.

There are as many different definitions of smartphone as there are commentators on the subject. However, my definition is that a smartphone must have all, or most of, the following:
 

• Large screen, generally touchable
• High-spec connectivity – 3G or 3.5G and WiFi
• Full HTML web browser
• 'Smart’ operating system capable of easily installing third party apps and updating itself with new OS versions
• Hard disc for media storage
• Powerful processor capable of running video, image processing and apps
• GPS and compass

It’s been perceived for the past couple of years that the smartphone is a field dominated by Apple, and is therefore relatively niche and populated by the typical iPhone demograph of high-end users and gadget geeks. However, this is no longer the case – the most common mobile in circulation in the UK today is the Nokia 5800 – a bona fide smartphone with WiFi, GPS, Flash support and the Ovi apps store. Retailing at around £100, it has put the smartphone into the hands of the masses.

So the smartphone future is here without anyone really being aware of it. There are tell-tale signs already around us. For example, T Mobile’s current campaign advertises ‘smartphones with apps for everyone’, and promotes a range of content-rich devices from Samsung and LG. 3 are promoting the augmented reality Layar browser on huge posters in branch windows. And prices are coming down - looking abroad, you can now find top smartphones such as the HTC Hero selling for $30 in the US.

Now that Apple has popularised the notion of the mobile as so much more than just a phone, the genie won’t go back in the bottle, and a virtuous circle is accelerating that will drive the large majority of users to smartphones within a couple of years. The network operators are working hard to improve their 3G networks to support faster data services, making web browsing, video, and IM a reality; media owners such as Sky, the Guardian and the social networks are driving millions of unique users to their mobile services; and of course, data charges for accessing mobile content are coming down rapidly as operators realise that ‘burning’ customers with per-meg data tariffs is counter-productive, and of course the capability and desirability of mobile devices is growing rapidly.

So, whereas a year ago, any brand or service wanting to ‘do an app’ pretty much had no choice but to go for the iPhone, 2010 and 2011 will see a growing raft of options, as more and more handset makers and OS bring mature offerings to market. While this complicates the approach to the apps market, it offers more choice and greater reach for those who are willing and able to navigate it.

Apple’s share of the overall market will continue to grow, though more slowly than some of its competitors. While trying to forecast Apple’s next move in mobile is not dissimilar to playing darts blindfold, the recent 4.0 software announcement includes multi-tasking, so apps can run simultaneously, a social gaming centre, improved (though still not brilliant) app notifications, and customisation, so your iPhone can finally represent a little of your personality, rather than Steve Jobs’...

Google’s Android is likely to be the biggest mover, and is forecast to overtake iPhone in market share by 2013, though I predict this will happen sooner. As the operating system is open source, it’s being taken up eagerly by Samsung, Sony Ericsson, HTC and more. While it has some way to go before it can rival Apple’s huge range of apps, the number of new apps in Android Market is rising quickly.

And let’s not forget Nokia. Much derided for the way their devices have been trounced by Apple in the user experience stakes, the release of their new Symbian 3 operating system, combined with them finally making some headway with their Ovi Store, will see Nokias finally become a decent platform for apps and mobile content. Also it should not be forgotten that mass-market manufacturers like Samsung and Nokia will enable apps to penetrate amongst the lower and younger demographs, as their mission is to place smartphones at all segments of the market.
Blackberry is another interesting platform. While the device is of course still the de facto device for business email, they have picked up, rather unexpectedly, a dedicated fanbase among young users attracted by the BB instant messaging service. In addition to the main players there are interesting moves from Samsung, Microsoft and others that will further fragment and add flavour to the mobile mix.

So what does all of this mean for brands who might want to ‘do an app’ in 2010? From my perspective, these are the key takeouts:

• ‘Doing an app’ on can no longer be justified for its own sake. I’m detecting a significant trend at the moment where apps are going to market because the CEO decides that he wants one, then has a word with some in-house techies who ‘knock one up’. In a more competitive market, where the servicing of users via their smart devices is expected as a simple hygiene issue, an app deployment on this basis is unlikely to take account of brand positioning, promotion, service management, and the numerous other aspects that should inform a premium customer-facing platform
• ‘Doing an app’ is now not simply iPhone. Brands considering entering or developing their efforts in the space must look to devise a full apps strategy that takes account of new platforms, and the broadening and splintering mobile demographic
• In the short term, optimising your web site for mobile is a must. Users are now expecting to be able to type in your URL and access your brand, and with mobile search also growing 30% year on year, those who don’t provide a decent experience in this regard will increasingly be perceived as not caring about these users – it’s like building a shop and then banning everyone over 5’6” from coming in. It’s a truism when building for the mobile web that sites should work to cater for users on the most basic mobiles, but now it’s more important to define a premium user experience for the growing and valuable base who have top-end devices.
• Whatever platform you build in, a promotional plan is critical. The days of creating an app and hoping it will do the business are long gone. Barclaycard’s Waterslide is a great example of how successful promotion can be – while the app itself is a relatively ordinary game, a huge burst of mobile advertising propelled it up the iTunes charts to the point where it ultimately delivered over 10m downloads. There are also countless other promotional techniques such as the use of third party app stores where content-hungry users browse for downloads. For those looking beyond iPhone there are also deals to be done directly with handset manufacturers looking to recruit premium brands to their new stores.

The mobile has shifted itself to the heart of our digital landscape faster than most of us realised, and with the developments outlined above the pace of change will increase over the next two years. Are you ready for the challenge of reaching your customers through mobile?

Tim Dunn
Head of Marketing Servies
Mobile Interactive Group (MIG)